Re: Is This a Real Opportunity?
"lkgeo1" <lkgeo1@aol.com> wrote in message
news:1138363099.517551.266320@g47g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
> NO, THIS IS : http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CONN&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
>
WOW! lkgeo1, sorry for the way I jumped on you about NDN. This time, in
spite of competition from WMT and BBY, I AGREE with you -- CONN is a GREAT
pick! Man, what a balance sheet!
However, it's trading at ca. 27.5 P/E, which is not that bad, after a fairly
long and pronounced run-up in price. It looks like it's rolling over, right
now, but I'm thinking more like consolidation. If the 41-1/2 to 42 area
holds, you're ok. Otherwise, SELL. If it breaks out above 44, STAY IN
until the next roll-over (50 may be possible), THEN GET OUT.
Why? This is a "small" regional appliance store, with only 47 locations in
Texas and Louisiana. It's beauty is that it is BIG enough to get good
prices from its suppliers and depend upon volume, yet SMALL enough to be a
bit more spry and nimble than the BIG BOYS in rapidly changing markets.
However, CONN doesn't appear to be in any type of rapid organic growth, let
alone any at all! For this reason, I think the value is just about in the
stock, now, and while there may still be room for one more run, I'd be
watching my back. Another reason is that some say this was kind of a
"Katrina" play that may now be in the process of winding down -- my own
opinion is that a "Katrina" play in this type of market could go on for
another 3-5 years -- but everyone knows what EMOTION can do, and very often
does, to apparently solid stocks, at any time.
End of Fiscal Year and End of Quarter is Jan-31 -- VERY SOON! You're going
to have to keep your ears to the ground and play this stock CAREFULLY until
you're sure about what the impending Earnings Reports will say and in which
direction they will carry this stock. Look for the Quarterly in the week
around Feb-7. End of Year finances will get a skeleton treatment at this
time, also, but the annual report won't get filed until ca. Apr-1
I'd be VERY interested in CONN again at any price below 35. After all, that
IS a STRONG Balance Sheet -- among other things, $36MM cash ON HAND, and
ZERO debt!
Mike Collier <--- STILL a ROOKIE = WORTHLESS opinion ;->
Oak Harbor, WA
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